New CEO at four of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
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8
Ṁ5332025
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There will be a new CEO in place in at least four of these companies by April 1 2025.
Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Microsoft
Amazon
IBM
NVidia
Tesla
Netflix
Snapchat
Uber
Airbnb
Dropbox
LinkedIn
Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.
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import numpy as np
probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)
res = []
for _ in range(300000):
sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 4
res.append(sample)
np.mean(res)
@firstuserhere My eyeballed probabilities for the next year. Then I assume that the year after has the same probability
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