Musk loses in 30s or less given fight happens
Musk loses in 30s or less given fight happens
9
170Ṁ147resolved Jan 2
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Musk will lose within 30s inclusive of the fight starting, by the fight clock (not absolute time)
Ie we must have this for yes
Fight starts
Fight has gone on less than 30s
He loses for any reason
If no fight happens by eoy 2024 it's NA
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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