Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 10 weeks before mid 2024
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predicts YES

@NicoDelon

Who does this guy think he is! I've never seen someone directly advocate jurors to violate their directions like this so widely

predicts YES

@Ernie Unbelievable.

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https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1709271113962852747 pretty serious claims from Patrick McKenzie that Michael Lewis has lost it or was never legit in the first place

predicts NO

@StrayClimb IMHO even more importantly for this market Molly White's review (https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/review-michael-lewiss-going-infinite) claims Lewis paints SBF as a misunderstood genius. Given the very public trial and evidence for fraud, negligence and general misconduct this might be a pretty hard sell..

predicts NO

@MartinModrak There was also this part where Lewis confidently proclaims the x-risk from AI to be smaller than from asteroids. I can’t imaging a book with such glaring inaccuracies ever gaining commercial success.

predicts YES

@1941159478 dude, that was clearly a tongue in cheek burn on the x-risk crowd. He wasn't even comparing Asteroid strikes to AI, he was joking about SBF's quirky thought process that defaults to assigning an x-risk value to everything he thinks about because that is how the dudes signal to each other in Silicon Valley and at Oxford. That excerpt is about everything except asteroids or AI. It's about SBF SOPs from the perspective of a fly on the wall. You feel me?

predicts NO

@BTE I feel ya and too was trying to joke because since when does a book being inaccurate (if it is) hurt sales.

Is there a place where one can easily look up how long a book has been on the bestseller list?

predicts NO

@nic_kup Wikipedia lists NYT #1 by year e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_New_York_Times_number-one_books_of_2023

From skimming this unscientifically, the non-fiction books with most weeks at #1 in last few years:
2023 — Spare, 9 weeks
2022 — The Body Keeps the Score, 9 weeks
2021 — American Marxism, 8 weeks (or Promise Land, 10 weeks inc. Dec-2020)
2020 — Untamed, 9 weeks (or Promise Land, 10 weeks inc. Jan/Feb-2021)

If this is correct, then only 1 book (Obama's Promised Land) has achieved this feat in the last ~4 years. Hence my conviction that this market has been very overpriced.

predicts YES

If it comes out early October we will have 38 weeks total

predicts YES

It's gonna be a thrilla

bought Ṁ20 of NO

While many Lewis books were NYT best sellers, being #1 for 10 whole weeks seems a much higher bar.

Question for @StrayClimb: does this mean #1 in any of the lists (eg paperback, hardcover, combined), or just combined Print & E Book nonfiction?

https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/

predicts YES
predicts YES

@wustep hmm I hadn't realized those existed. They're really only updated once a month? That seems like it would mean they were excluded

bought Ṁ15 of NO

Most other Michael Lewis books are not NYT best sellers I think. I think ftx and crypto is not as universally interesting as 2008 crash?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@NoaNabeshima I think NYT best seller can be gamed and being a past NYT best seller helps? but I don't think his pandemic book will be a nyt best seller

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I might be hopelessly confused here, I didn't look long

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima might be different michael lewises eg

@NoaNabeshima I found this from Claude and he seems to do pretty well!

predicts YES

@NoaNabeshima Think my statement is wrong now probably

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