Will Manifold avoid anyone being tricked into mis-resolving a market by misleading links, arguments, or false information, before August 15 2023?
Resolves YES if we avoid this situation:
In a public, real-world verifiable public information market (none of those private information/opinion/stocks/self-referential markets)
In market comments, only from user main accounts, no alts
A question owner gets tricked with false information, comments, or arguments, into mis-resolving a market, and then even worse the tricker posts "got 'em" in the comments and links it here.
Hopefully we can show manifold markets is resilient to this!
If the question owner later undoes it or fixes it, it still counts as a failure. If the mis-resolution is to "NA" or any other value when it should have had another value, it still counts as a misresolution. It has to be a binary or clearly wrong resolution - I'm not sure how numerical markets work but if it's "wrong by 0.1" that doesn't count. It has to be a completely wrong choice chosen as the resolution.
If random other alts pile on with additional false information, I'll use my best judgement to determine their impact. But please don't do this either to pollute evidence of a real trick, or to try to induce a misresolution.
We are looking for pretty clear misresolutions. If the resolution seemed correct at the time but was later realized to be wrong, and the deadline was not passed, that counts as a misresolution, since they were tricked into doing it early. If it was after the resolution period and the alleged misresolution made sense at the time, it doesn't count.
There have to have been comments which lead or convince the market owner to misresolve. It's not enough for them to just be wrong. There have to be comments pushing them in the wrong direction.
i.e. for a market due jan 1 2024 about "will X happen by 2024"
if someone tricks the market owner to resolving NO when actually it should be YES, and it's BEFORE 2024, then that's a trick misresolution (since the market owner should have either waited, or not been tricked)
if 2024 comes, the owner is doing research, and misresolves it even though they could have known they were making a mistake, that's a trick misresolution. If they couldn't have known, then it's not a misresolution.
don't forget, the evil tricker has to post "got 'em" in the comments for it to count.
1,000
1.00@StanisawKokocinski yes there are no response right? So we super safe
This market is no predictive so tricking me is irrelevant btw
Resolving soon unless new info comes in
Great question! This should be showcased.
Edit: actually after reading the description I have realised this is a manifold assassination market.
I still think showcasing might be a good idea as it will give people a heads up about what's coming.
some questions:
Why only keep the bounty up until Aug 15?
Do you plan to have another one to replace it as it expires?
I'd give >90% chance that I will think this happened. (Minus the tricker saying “got ‘em”)
I don't know about the market creator though so I'm not betting much
But if you get tricked into misresolving this market NO it will be a valid resolution, and thus you were not tricked and thus it's a misresolution and thus...