All claims about sts1 are referring to the main base game without mods, latest version produced by the original devs.
Claims will be resolved by the game at release through updates up to 1 week. Only the initial payment game counts not expansions etc also sold at the point sts2 is released. For example, if it appears to have an extra playable character but a bug prevents it from actually being used til after the deadline it would NOT count. The main thing we use to decide (and we have to have some way to do so) is with this time limit. Also, it includes unlockable content, even content that is hard to unlock. But, if content is hinted at in screenshots, but with doubt, actually is in the game, but nobody gets to unlock it until the time limit is reached.... Woohoo boy that would be tough to judge.
Claims about cards being in the game mean they are playable as normal cards, and not as flavor images or mentioned in a diary entry cut scene.
Claims include content only unlockable with skill or by other means for the general public purchasers of the game, including payment, as long as "most" of the public could potentially get it.
The public refers to the USA only because otherwise it's too complicated.
Overall I'll try to reduce resolution surprise. I want to resolve markets the way they are meant, not strictly on rare cases. But please help clarify issues. I'll extend close time to keep things meaningful. If the game never ships then I guess it all goes NA.
I invite all playtesters, devs, players and also the entire population of the universe plus bots to bet as long as it is legal (for me) for you to do that, and as long as you are not violating your own beneficial moral system. Ideally everyone could get without being worried about being sniped by a total insider.
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The phrase "four playable characters" means exactly 4 playable characters, not "at least 4".
Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Early Access release counts as the release of the game for resolution purposes (i.e., when "the public can play the game"). Most market questions refer to the Early Access release, not the full release.
Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution of the final boss market will be delayed until the next final boss is known.
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@Ernie It's been 1 week since release:
"There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20":
Should resolve to NO, as the ascension levels only go up to 10, which isn't more than 20.
The game itself only shows 50 total ascensions, 10 for each of the 5 characters.
And, despite having beat Ascension 10, there is no additional ascension unlocked past 10.
"All current cards for at least one character will be playable":
Should resolve to NO, as all 3 of the returning characters are missing multiple cards. This link has every card in the game exported from directly from slay the spire 2, and multiple cards from StS1 for each class are missing completely, such as:
Ironclad: Cleave, Clothesline, Flex, Heavy Blade, Wild Strike, Blood for Blood, etc.
Silent: Bane, Flying Knee, Quick Slash, Sneaky Strike, All-Out Attack, Catalyst, etc.
Defect: Steam Barrier, Streamline, Aggregate, Auto-Shields, Bullseye, Blizzard, etc.
Watcher: Not in the game entirely.
"It will have four playable characters on release":
Should resolve no, as there have been 5 characters since release, not 4: Ironclad, Silent, Regent, Necrobinder, and Defect.
@ProjectVictory it has 4 playable characters on release - I'm a bit confused why this is so low. It also has 5 playable characters, but the answer doesn't say only 4 playable characters, does it?
@Ernie There are indeed 5 playable characters (Not 4), and Regent and Necrobinder are new.
By the way, would the final boss including the heart or like the final boss using the heart count as "The final boss will be the heart"? And how strict is "final boss" here, is it still the final boss if its a final boss for some runs but maybe there's some alternate or deeper boss? I haven't actually gotten there yet but both seem like very possible outcomes to me rn.
Also, none of the other ones except for the 4 playable characters on release can resolve NO until 1 week after release, right?
"Claims about cards being in the game mean they are playable as normal cards"
Does this include ancient cards? I know some of the old cards like Corruption are now ancient cards instead of regularly draftable cards, but they still very much exist in the game and are playable for the character, just harder to obtain.
@Ernie Hmm, I think it's extremely likely the final boss will be Architect, as it does the same act 3 ending the Heart did in the original, but it's entirely unclear how related/unrelated the heart will be in the fight. Like they are clearly distinct characters, but the Heart can be seen lying on the floor in the background and it seems likely it would be incorporated into the fight somehow. There could also be lore that connects them more, idk. I'm assuming then that it won't resolve until the final boss is actually fully released in the game then, not just clear teasers?
@Ernie All answers except for the mid 2026 one are referring to the Early Access Release, not the full release in probably 1-2 years, right?
@Ernie @ProjectVictory Is "It will have four playable characters on release" at least 4, or exactly 4?
@Dssc agree, exactly four seems to be the interpretation otherwise people could ask witness "were there four men there in the room?" And the witness could say yes when there were really any number >=4 and cross-examine would have to check this every time. That's not okay