Kim family isn't supreme leader in North Korea anytime through 2028
4
130Ṁ1232029
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Someone of the Kim family (related to Kim Jong Un) is no longer the leader of North Korea anytime for at least a month through
His unclea, cousins, etc count.
Will base this on whatever the supreme leader is described as.
If NK is split, the main part.
If NK doesn't exist, it'll be based on the best continuation for the majority of the population.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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