An American quickly has at least 15 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2027
An American quickly has at least 15 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2027
5
110Ṁ1322028
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.
They must have multiple children via wives/surrogates/etc such that there is a time interval of 2 years such that there are at least 15 children born within it. The person of interest can be the father or mother, as long as the children are substantially their genetic children (some minor genetic modification may be allowed)
e.g. this story, where through surrogates, they have a huge number of children with birthdays just a few months apart: - children ages: Mustafa, 19 months; Mariam, 18 months; Ayrin, 18 months; Alisa, 18 months; Hasan, 17 months; Judi, 17 months; Harper, 16 months; Teresa, 16 months; Huseyin, 16 months and Anna, 15 months.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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