Only a 33% chance of an upset is interesting

That implies 10 states (5 R, 5 D) that each have a <5% chance of being flipped assuming a typical amount of correlation between states.

Seems like an Arbitrage opportunity with states like IA, NH having a nearly 20% chance of upset and since they're smaller states they're likely less correlated to the nation

I’m curious about which states YES holders think will have an upset

texas or florida

I guess it would probably have to be one of those two but I’m a blue Alaska believer myself

NH, VA, AK, TX, FL, OH, IA are probably my top guesses (not in order)
(Edit: also ME)

TX would certainly be a blowout. That would be a sight to behold.

As for which state I'd put Mana on, that's not really what is driving my decision. I think the unlikely voters demographic will drive this election, so I'm betting on general chaos as a heuristic.

Not sure what to make of Maine here? Any Maine EVs going Red isn't an upset, although all of them going red might be. Same with NE.

The description says statewide vote

Yeah, congressional districts are not relevant to the resolution of this question.