Will the 2024 presidential election feature an upset in a state?
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1kį¹€44k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

Define an upset to be any one of the following:

  • Kamala Harris* loses a state colored blue below (or loses DC)

  • Donald Trump* loses a state colored red below

Will there be an upset in the 2024 presidential election?

* If Harris or Trump gets replaced, this question will instead be about whoever the new Democratic / Republican nominee is.

(The winner of a state is the person who gets the most votes in that state.)

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@EricNeyman Everything except swing states has been called now, no upsets

Only a 33% chance of an upset is interesting

That implies 10 states (5 R, 5 D) that each have a <5% chance of being flipped assuming a typical amount of correlation between states.

Seems like an Arbitrage opportunity with states like IA, NH having a nearly 20% chance of upset and since they're smaller states they're likely less correlated to the nation

I’m curious about which states YES holders think will have an upset

texas or florida

I guess it would probably have to be one of those two but I’m a blue Alaska believer myself

bought į¹€50 YES

NH, VA, AK, TX, FL, OH, IA are probably my top guesses (not in order)
(Edit: also ME)

TX would certainly be a blowout. That would be a sight to behold.

As for which state I'd put Mana on, that's not really what is driving my decision. I think the unlikely voters demographic will drive this election, so I'm betting on general chaos as a heuristic.

Not sure what to make of Maine here? Any Maine EVs going Red isn't an upset, although all of them going red might be. Same with NE.

The description says statewide vote

Yeah, congressional districts are not relevant to the resolution of this question.

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