Will the 2024 presidential election feature an upset in a state?

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Nov 12

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Define an upset to be any one of the following:

Kamala Harris* loses a state colored blue below (or loses DC)
Donald Trump* loses a state colored red below

Will there be an upset in the 2024 presidential election?

* If Harris or Trump gets replaced, this question will instead be about whoever the new Democratic / Republican nominee is.

(The winner of a state is the person who gets the most votes in that state.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Trump

#Democratic Party

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I’m curious about which states YES holders think will have an upset

texas or florida

I guess it would probably have to be one of those two but I’m a blue Alaska believer myself

bought Ṁ50 YES

NH, VA, AK, TX, FL, OH, IA are probably my top guesses (not in order)
(Edit: also ME)

TX would certainly be a blowout. That would be a sight to behold.

As for which state I'd put Mana on, that's not really what is driving my decision. I think the unlikely voters demographic will drive this election, so I'm betting on general chaos as a heuristic.

Not sure what to make of Maine here? Any Maine EVs going Red isn't an upset, although all of them going red might be. Same with NE.

The description says statewide vote

Yeah, congressional districts are not relevant to the resolution of this question.

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