Conditional on the outcome in Florida, will Harris win?
15
1kṀ4244
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
N/A
Harris +3 or more
Resolved
N/A
Harris +0-3
Resolved
N/A
Trump +0-3
Resolved
N/A
Trump +3-6
Resolved
N/A
Trump +6-9
Resolved
N/A
Trump +9-12
Resolved
NO
Trump +12-15
Resolved
N/A
Trump +15 or more

All but one of these options will resolve to N/A. The one that contains the margin of victory in Florida will resolve YES if Harris wins the presidential election and NO if she doesn't.

For example, if Trump wins Florida with a 4-point margin and Harris wins the presidential election, all options besides Trump +3-6 will resolve N/A, while the Trump +3-6 option will resolve YES. (If instead Trump won the presidential election, that option would resolve NO.)

The purpose of this market is so that people know in advance how much to freak out if at 8pm ET it's looking like Trump will win Florida by 13 points (as per the NYT/Siena poll).

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