This market resolves True if Manifold Markets (this site) implements and beta-tests automatic bet sizing algorithms (e.g. Kelly Criterion) for users who open trades at any point this year, for at least one day.
One example of how this might be resolved: instead of the default 10 mana, the order size is bet as a fraction of the user's total mana, adjusted against their win rate.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ59 | |
| 2 | Ṁ22 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Inactive creator, Manifold hasn't implemented automatic bet-sizing, resolving NO.
Manifold did on Dec 30th 2023 (Pacific time) implement increment/decrement buttons for the bet input box that differed in size depending on a user's balance. For a user with <Ṁ1000 balance, the buttons were ±1, ±10, ±100, and for users with ≥Ṁ1000, they were ±10, ±100, ±1000.
The default bet size, however, remained Ṁ10.
I don't think that change is enough to resolve this market YES - it didn't modify the default bet size, the ±1000 buttons obviously wouldn't have been usable if you didn't have Ṁ1000 anyway, and this just seems like a practical recognition of bet sizes users were likely to enter than a nudge toward anything Kelly-esque in the spirit of the question.