How serious will Cuomo’s general election run be?
24
2.6kṀ4006
Nov 4
94%
Cuomo appears on ballot
58%
Cuomo hosts a campaign rally
51%
Cuomo appears in a debate
50%
Cuomo and allies spend >$25M
50%
Cuomo rides the subway
49%
Cuomo visits a mosque
46%
Cuomo releases another 15+ minute campaign video
36%
Cuomo attends a mayoral forum
28%
Cuomo eats B.E.C. (bacon optional) on camera
Resolved
YES
Cuomo announces an official bid

2025 Mayor Race. Based on if these events happen after market publication date and before or on Election Day November 4, 2025

Official bid: run as non-Democrat as per this Polymarket

>$25m: "spend at least $25 million on the campaign (including PACs)" (suggested by @cthor)

Mosque and mayoral forum ideas stolen from: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/nyregion/cuomo-mayor-campaign.html

Clarification: these will resolve independently of each other. e.g. if he takes himself off the ballot but still rides the subway, I will count that as riding the subway! (as an effort to get write-in votes?). However the campaign rally would have to be for himself, not for a potential other candidate he is endorsing.

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Cuomo appears on ballot' outcome:

    • This will resolve when the first early voting ballots are released.

    • The condition is his actual appearance on the released ballot, not a legal guarantee that he will appear.

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