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When will the first snowfall be in New York City this winter (2023/2024)?
7
Ṁ420Ṁ4.1k
resolved Jan 10
100%99.3%
January
0.1%
October
0.1%
November
0.1%
December
0.1%
February
0.1%
March
0.1%
No Snow
0.1%Other

Has be a visible layer of snow on the ground. Sleet and hail don't count.

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⚠Unreceptive to pings ; Definitive Proof

📢Resolved to January

@EricAppleton resolves JANUARY. widespread reports of snow accumulating in NYC.

Example: https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1743733297622945982

@mint official source: https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/1743789105593672034?t=WTipc4axDLcyi_-OFWdXQA&s=19

https://manifold.markets/DanielRohrer/will-there-be-a-white-christmas-in?r=RGFuaWVsUm9ocmVy

Will there be a White Christmas in more than 30% of the United States on 12/25/23?
34% chance. For reference, here are the last 6 years of data, over which the average is 34.4%: 2022: 53% White Christmas 2021: 26.6% 2020: 26.5% 2019: 28.1% 2018: 24.6% 2017: 49% This will be determined by the results on NOAA's website: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

Do mini flurries, sleet, or hail count?

@oh Hmm. Good question. I would say there has to be a visible layer of snow on the ground. Sleet and hail don't count.

@EricAppleton Fair! Thanks for updating the description

Welcome to Manifold! Fellow New Yorker here and I love these questions.