Will Manifold send an updated email specifying the dates of Manifest? | Manifold

Will Manifold send an updated email specifying the dates of Manifest?

16

closes Sep 24

1.6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

While the front page of Manifold lists the dates, the recent email titled "Last Chance: Get Tickets to Manifest 2023!" merely lists some Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the dates. Will Manifold send an updated email blast?

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will at least 10 people report having found my new Manifold search function useful within a week?

55% chance

Will I still be submitting Manifold bug reports at the end of September?

67% chance

Will I create a Manifold bot in September?

45% chance

Manifold calibration: YES-bias on at least 8/9 categories on Oct. 1st?

Loppukilpailija

83% chance

Will I have at least 25 reviews on my Manifold profile?

53% chance

Will Manifold open country chapters by September?

26% chance

Will I be able to hide news topics on the front page of Manifold at close?

33% chance

Will the majority of respondents to my Manifold survey also have taken Pat's Manifold Survey?

75% chance

Will Manifold ever do anything to stop spammy engagement-farming questions like this one?

65% chance

Will my Manifold Survey have more gender diversity than Pat's?

31% chance

Will the dwarf planet question on my Manifold survey have the same result as the original survey?

39% chance

Will @MarcusAbramovich honour his "going to be spending a lot less time on Manifold going forward" in September?

22% chance

Will Manifold Markets have a Wikipedia page this year?

58% chance

Will Manifold add the ability to pin comments by end of October?

69% chance

Will I only use manifold for about 5 minutes each day until October.

Justified use of Fallibilism

15% chance

Will Manifold for Charity get accepted to YCombinator W24?

23% chance

Will Manifold publish info about Mana (Ṁ) supply?

70% chance

Will Manifold implement a "manifold subscription"

25% chance

Will Manifold keep the "resolution reliability" ranking system in place for at least three months?

80% chance

Will my Manifold survey get more responses than Pat's?

93% chance

Sort by:

Collected Over Spreadpredicts NO

Am I interpreting this too narrowly or is it way overpriced? I doubt that Manifold will send out an e-mail just to say, "Sorry, everyone, we forgot to mention the exact dates in our last newsletter." But if we allow any additional newsletter with updated information about Manifest (say, something like "Manifest is a Week Away!") that does include the dates, then I could understand the current value.

1 reply

Epsilonpredicts YES

@CollectedOverSpread I wrote it intending the latter interpretation to trigger a YES resolution.

Saul Munnbought Ṁ100 of YES

it’s sept 22-24 :)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 1.6% 🤖

Неточка Незванова sold Ṁ125 NO from 3% to 4%

june bought Ṁ300 NO from 5% to 3%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 5% 🤖

Ahmed Elsayyad bought Ṁ15 YES from 3% to 6%

Cris bought Ṁ1 NO at 3%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 3% 🤖

june bought Ṁ300 NO from 11% to 4%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 11% (cancelled) 🤖

Epsilon bought Ṁ100 NO from 14% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 14% (cancelled) 🤖

Epsilon bought Ṁ35 NO from 14% to 13%

Epsilon sold Ṁ4 YES from 16% to 14%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 NO at 16% (cancelled) 🤖

Неточка Незванова bought Ṁ100 NO from 30% to 17%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Shump bought Ṁ45 NO from 38% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Shump bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 YES at 49% (cancelled) 🤖

Shump bought Ṁ150 NO from 86% to 39%

Calvinball bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Collected Over Spread sold Ṁ6 NO from 84% to 86%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ51/Ṁ100 YES at 84% (cancelled) 🤖

Saul Munn sold Ṁ117 YES from 87% to 81%

Rithwik Jayasimha bought Ṁ10 YES at 87%

Andrew Bocz sold Ṁ2 NO from 86% to 87%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 86% (cancelled) 🤖

Spongpad bought Ṁ100 YES from 83% to 88%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 83% (cancelled) 🤖

Debaser bought Ṁ100 YES from 75% to 85%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 75% (cancelled) 🤖

Collected Over Spread bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 73%

Epsilon bought Ṁ10 YES from 76% to 78%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 76% (cancelled) 🤖

Saul Munn bought Ṁ100 YES from 56% to 83%

Bohaska bought Ṁ5 YES from 54% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 54% (cancelled) 🤖

kina bought Ṁ5 YES from 51% to 55%

Andrew Bocz bought Ṁ7 NO from 59% to 51%

Epsilon bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

Related questions

Will at least 10 people report having found my new Manifold search function useful within a week?

55% chance

Will I still be submitting Manifold bug reports at the end of September?

67% chance

Will I create a Manifold bot in September?

45% chance

Manifold calibration: YES-bias on at least 8/9 categories on Oct. 1st?

Loppukilpailija

83% chance

Will I have at least 25 reviews on my Manifold profile?

53% chance

Will Manifold open country chapters by September?

26% chance

Will I be able to hide news topics on the front page of Manifold at close?

33% chance

Will the majority of respondents to my Manifold survey also have taken Pat's Manifold Survey?

75% chance

Will Manifold ever do anything to stop spammy engagement-farming questions like this one?

65% chance

Will my Manifold Survey have more gender diversity than Pat's?

31% chance

Will the dwarf planet question on my Manifold survey have the same result as the original survey?

39% chance

Will @MarcusAbramovich honour his "going to be spending a lot less time on Manifold going forward" in September?

22% chance

Will Manifold Markets have a Wikipedia page this year?

58% chance

Will Manifold add the ability to pin comments by end of October?

69% chance

Will I only use manifold for about 5 minutes each day until October.

Justified use of Fallibilism

15% chance

Will Manifold for Charity get accepted to YCombinator W24?

23% chance

Will Manifold publish info about Mana (Ṁ) supply?

70% chance

Will Manifold implement a "manifold subscription"

25% chance

Will Manifold keep the "resolution reliability" ranking system in place for at least three months?

80% chance

Will my Manifold survey get more responses than Pat's?

93% chance