Will Manifold send an updated email specifying the dates of Manifest?
16
closes Sep 24
1.6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ499 +4898.3%
New probability
3% +0.9%
While the front page of Manifold lists the dates, the recent email titled "Last Chance: Get Tickets to Manifest 2023!" merely lists some Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the dates. Will Manifold send an updated email blast?
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Collected Over Spreadpredicts NO
Am I interpreting this too narrowly or is it way overpriced? I doubt that Manifold will send out an e-mail just to say, "Sorry, everyone, we forgot to mention the exact dates in our last newsletter." But if we allow any additional newsletter with updated information about Manifest (say, something like "Manifest is a Week Away!") that does include the dates, then I could understand the current value.
1 reply

Epsilonpredicts YES
@CollectedOverSpread I wrote it intending the latter interpretation to trigger a YES resolution.
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