Hamas Leaders Killed or Captured by Israel before end of 2024
➕
Plus
66
Ṁ15k
Jan 1
9%
Mohammed Sinwar
9%
Osama Hamdan
9%
Abu Obaida
5%
Khaled Mashal
Resolved
YES
Ismail Haniyeh
Resolved
YES
Mohammed Deif
Resolved
YES
Yehya Sinwar
Resolved
YES
Marwan Issa

While capture by Israel is likely to be easily confirmed, establishing that a Hamas leader is (a) deceased (b) as a result of an action taken by the state of Israel, I will consult assessments and statements given by (1) Hamas, (2) IDF/Israel (3) intelligence services of other states such as the US, France, UK, etc.; as well as reporting by established media outlets such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CNN, BBC, etc.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Why was Deif resolved when there are still questions about it? Has it been confirmed by Hamas?

New York Times, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia all using past tense to refer to Deif. No denials from Hamas since the announcement by the IDF of their confirmation.

That’s true, but they already denied it after the strike that allegedly killed him, though: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-14/israel-says-hamas-commander-was-likely-killed-despite-denial

They confirmed Haniyeh immediately (different wings, political vs military, but still).

I try to resolve based entirely on institutional consensus (newspapers, wiki, relevant organizations etc) to maintain objectivity. I haven’t seen any significant or newsworthy objection to the consensus since the confirmation was announced.

@AmHa

Ismail Haniyeh? See list below

“Al Jazeera’s team on the ground said the dead from the Haniyeh family included Zahr Abdel Salam Haniyeh, Nahed Haniyeh Abu Ghazi, Iman Haniyeh Umm Ghazi, Ismail Nahed Haniyeh, Muhammad Nahed Haniyeh, Moamen Nahed Haniyeh, Zahra Nahed Haniyeh, Amal Nahed Haniyeh, Shahad Nahed Haniyeh and Sumaya Nahed Haniyeh.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/25/israeli-air-strike-kills-10-family-members-of-hamas-chief-haniyeh-in-gaza

A relative with the same name. Ismail Haniyeh—the leader of Hamas—is still alive.

Thanks!

Does it count if they commit suicide to avoid capture?

@UnspecifiedPerson Does not count

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules