Will monkeypox spread in South Africa?
47%
chance
Jul 31
M$614 bet
This seems to be the New AIDS, so it seems worth asking if it's going to affect southern Africa like AIDS. Resolves yes if there are more than ten thousand cases of monkeypox in South Africa by the end of the year, no if not.
MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley bought M$40 of NO
What source do you plan to use to determine resolution? It's easy to imagine an outbreak being poorly documented compared to the ones in Europe..
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EnopoletusHarding
Enopoletus Harding is betting YES at 39%
@MichaelWheatley Oh, believe me, it'll be obvious when there'll be more than ten thousand cases. Also, though South Africa's testing wasn't great, it was vastly better than most of SSA's.
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting NO at 62%
@EnopoletusHarding I'm concerned about the edge case where we have to bicker about whether it's been 8,000 or 12,000
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