This market will resolve on or before January 1st 2045, it will not be extended.
This market will resolve YES if I have experiences that reveal the external world and my physical body as I know them to not exist, and that the only body I have is a mere thinking organ, being stimulated in such a way as to create the experience I have had since I was born in 1995.
If I am pulled from the false world as part of the revelation then I will return to it by any means necessary to resolve this market YES, whether the other minds I interacted with on Manifold turned out to be real or not.
This market will resolve NO on January 1st 2045 if I have not experienced such a revelation.
If I become insane or otherwise inhibited in such a way that I come to believe falsely that I am a brain in a vat, regrettably this market will resolve YES.
1,000question from discord: "how would [they] distinguish being a brain in a vat from the supernatural being real?"
I will provide my response here for transparency on how I would resolve this market in supernatural scenarios:
if I came to know of a world completely external to the one I know now this would be 'supernatural' by the definition of the natural I have today. so I would say that being a brain in a vat is a more specific "the supernatural is real" scenario. for instance if it was revealed to me that the supernatural is real via a (very convincing) message from God, revealing that the Bible or another Abrahamic text is entirely correct, this would imply my body and my world are still real (God makes them exist cause he can), but the supernatural exists too. lots of other scenarios like that, where I have evidence of the supernatural but not that there is a sensory organ (which is me) being stimulated to create my experience.
Examples of NO resolves:
I die and meet my maker, he tells me how it all works and this doesn't involve brains or vats.
I get pulled from the Matrix, go to Zion, become fuck buddies with Neo. (my body is still real and the world, only many specific details are fake)
I die and become a ghost, I can see that bodies and the world did exist, but presumably ghosts too.