Will I sell more tree toppers on etsy this year than I did last year?
18
463Ṁ1173
resolved Dec 13
Resolved
YES

Last year I sold 619 tree toppers on my etsy shop. Will I sell more during this holiday season than last year? I will count all tree toppers sold from October 1st to December 31st.

Some facts:

  • I have my listings up about two weeks earlier than last year.

  • I have gotten rid of a few styles and am testing out selling 10 inch stars and not just 6 inch stars

  • I am stocking about 200 fewer stars than last year, having replaced them with small wreaths, so far I haven't sold any of the new style

  • My pricing has increased by a few dollars

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

UPDATES: I am not betting on this.

I will share weekly updates.

Last year's highest selling day was November 27th.

October 21st: 10 sold total

October 25th: 16 sold total

November 2nd: 32 sold total

November 8th: 57 sold total

November 12th: 88 sold total

November 25th: I lost track of the total right now because I am so busy, but I sold 50 just today and 25 yesterday so it is looking likely. I will update again when things slow down again after next week.

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predictedYES 1y

Whoooo! We want to know the total!! Later on is fine 😃 congrats!

predictedYES 1y

Woo! Great job!

1y

I didn't count exactly but it is over 800..... I'm going to rest my fingers now. :)

predictedYES 1y

@EveryDayDabble Congratulations! Do you have any pictures?

1y

Too busy to keep track, buying yes

1y

1y

Week 4 update: 32 sold

1y

As of October 25th: 16 sold

predictedYES 1y

@EveryDayDabble how does that compare to last year?

1y

@EvanDaniel I had sold 2 last year by the date of this chart. I started selling them two weeks earlier this year.

1y

Update: Holding steady at 10 tree topper sold (as of October 21st)

predictedYES 1y

@EveryDayDabble I wonder if people buy more when their local weather starts to turn cold?

1y

@Ernie It normally picks up after Halloween. People can only think about one holiday at a time.

1y

UPDATE: 10 Tree toppers sold (as of October 17th)

predictedYES 1y

Is this what they look like?

1y

@Ernie Less blingy than that

1y

Link your store!!! Let's go Emmmm!

1y

@Ernie Is that allowed?

1y

@EmilyChang Absolutely! (I'm not an admin, but AFAIK it is...)

In general I expect good-faith stuff to be allowed. Fire-and-forget a market + link is probably bad, but if you're on here answering questions and participating on Manifold in other ways, I expect it's fine (and encouraged).

Personally I'd love to see more stuff like this. I'd love to see multiple people making markets like this, offering comments / advice on each others' markets, and bettering accordingly.

Other markets I'd love to see in particular are decision markets: "if I make a new product like X, will it sell well?" "which photo set is better for advertising my new product line? [4-option market of (photos a, photos b) x (over/under x sales figure)]", and similar.

If you (or someone else) sent me a list of a few such markets (or dashboard) I'd be happy to offer market-writing opinions (if desired) or a few hundred M in subsidies.

(Basically I think this sort of thing is super neat and I'd love to encourage more of it.)

1y

@EvanDaniel Thank you!

As a seller, it might be valuable to see comments/advice from people in this organized/visual/data component format rather than in long strings of responses on message boards. I wonder how open people would be about their products, for fear of competitors.

The photo set question would probably work though.

I don't have a sense of the people in this community, and how those values/perspectives etc. match up with the types of people who sell online. And if those two communities would mesh well on this kind of site.

I don't know too much about the types of markets/questions and how things on here work yet, I just put this question up as a way to try to figure it out a bit more....

Last year I sold a bunch of live poison ivy plants, and never would have thought those would have sold! That would have been a fun question to pose as over/under sales figure.

1y

@EveryDayDabble I would also like to see your shop!

predictedYES 1y

@EveryDayDabble yeah, imagine making a market on "will the live poison ivy product be popular?" and watching people get surprised as the sales figures shot up!

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