Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk or SpaceX publicly announces and implements a program providing free Starlink internet access to Iranian residents by March 4, 2026. The announcement must explicitly state that service is being offered at no cost (either temporarily or permanently). Resolution will be verified through official SpaceX/Musk statements, major news outlets, or Starlink's official channels.

This market resolves NO if no such announcement or implementation occurs by the deadline.

Background

In June 2025, after Israeli strikes, Iran imposed a nationwide internet blackout, and Elon Musk activated Starlink over Iran. However, the activation made Starlink connectivity available only to users with Starlink terminals, not to the entire Iranian population. The number of Starlink satellite internet users in Iran has surpassed 100,000, with satellite internet usage in the country increasing 20-fold in 2024.

US President Donald Trump's envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, asked billionaire Elon Musk to temporarily provide free access to the Starlink satellite communications system for residents of Iran in June 2025, but there is no public record of Musk accepting this request.

Considerations

In late June, Iran's parliament passed a law criminalizing the use or import of unauthorized communication tools such as Starlink with prison terms of six months to two years for people found using or importing such equipment without approval. Starlink equipment costs around $700 to $2,000 in Iran due to sanctions and import restrictions, making widespread free access logistically and politically challenging. Any free service would likely face significant Iranian government opposition and enforcement difficulties.