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MANIFOLD
Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole
13
Ṁ15kṀ7.2k
2030
1.9 multiplier
expected
4%
Below 0.2x
12%
0.2- 0.49x
27%
0.50 - 0.79x
16%
.8- .99x
18%
1 - 1.49x
8%
1.5 - 1.99x
6%
2.0x - 4.99x
4%
5.0x - 9.99x
5%
above 10x

Uptick is operationalized as SART's national summary showing at least 550,000 ART cycles in 2028. Their preliminary numbers should be available in April 2030. The market will resolve as N/A if there are <550k ART cycles (but there will be a sister market for that reality).

The answer is the (relative growth in PGNY from today to 5/1/28)/(relative growth in Nasdaq)

  • Update 2026-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution will be calculated using the following formula:

    • Formula: (PGNY_2028 / PGNY_2026) / (Nasdaq_2028 / Nasdaq_2026)

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Do you mean the percent chance in (PGNY / Nasdaq) or (percent change in PGNY / percent change in Nasdaq)? Because the latter could be negative if, say, pgny returned -10% and Nasdaq returned +10%

@spiderduckpig
(PGNY!2028/PGNY!2026)/(Nasdaq!2028/Nasdaq!2026)