Will Remco Evenepoel leave Soudal-QuickStep before 31 December 2023?
resolved Dec 30

Canceled contract, mid-season transfer, etc.

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predicted NO

Closes and resolves based on "Cycling time", UTC+1, at the end of the day 30 December 2023.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

I think we need some additional clarification here due to the current situation of the team, that was not fully apparent at the time the question was created.

  1. In order to resolve Yes, Remco needs to cancel the contract with SOQ before 31 December 2023. As a reminder, all cycling contracts must end on 31 December. His current contract is rumored to end on 31 December 2026, but we can't say that for a certainty. Since he is currently signed to SOQ, we know that the absolute earliest his contract could end would be 31 December 2023.

  2. He does not need to sign a contract to a new team for the 2023 season for this to resolve Yes.

  3. Signing a different contract for 2024 probably doesn't mean anything for this question, we only care about what happens before 31 December 2023.

  4. There are two key pieces of evidence I foresee looking at to see if he has canceled his 2023 contract:

    1. First, the UCI website normally lists only active riders on the team roster pages. If the core of team Soudal - Quick Step is listed for 2023 but Remco's name disappears and does not come back, that would be strong evidence of Yes. However, these UCI pages are sometimes either inconsistent, confusing, or just plain wrong. The presence or absence of a name here is not a 100% lock solid certainty of a canceled contract.

    2. Second, riders are contractually obligated to ride in the team's jersey (and usually the team's equipment, with some exceptions) through 31 December, even if they are changing teams for the next season. If we see photo evidence of Remco riding in another team's jersey, or kit with no team's sponsorship, that would be strong evidence for Yes.

If you have any other questions, scenarios, etc., please ask.

predicted NO

@Eliza what happens if the merger goes through and he stays at the new Soudal-Visma, would you resolve YES? How about if the merger goes through and he becomes a free agent under revision of his contract (before Dec 31)?

predicted YES

@egroj I don't care about 2024 or a 2024 merger. All I care about is 2023. If his contract for the 2023 season with SOQ is canceled for any reason before 31 December 2023, this will resolve Yes.

Some evidence of a canceled contract might be:

  • Does a training ride in some kit other than 2023 SOQ kit

  • Name removed from UCI website list for 2023 SOQ team and/or added to another team's list for 2023

Some things that are NOT evidence of a canceled contract before 31 December 2023:

  • Announces signing to a new team for 2024

  • Announces retirement at the end of 2023

  • Death (unless he has left the team prior)

  • The team announces it is dissolving for 2024 but riders continue to ride in SOQ kit on training rides until 31 December 2023

Hope this helps. Keep asking if you want.

predicted YES

@Eliza I care about the effective date of a cancellation, not the date it is announced. So if he announces today that he is leaving to a new team on 1 January, that is NOT "leaving before 31 December".

predicted NO