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MANIFOLD
Will any sprint stage* of the 2026 Tour de France be won by a late escapee*?
2
Ṁ1kṀ20
Jul 26
11%
chance

You gotta read below to figure out what is required.

Conditions for a Yes resolution:

  1. The winning rider must be in a group of at least 75 riders at some point within the final 10km of the stage.

  2. The winning rider must move to be ahead of every other rider ("tete de la course") for at least the final 500m of the stage with no other rider passing them.

  3. The group finishing either with or immediately after the stage winner must still have at least 50 riders on the same time.

All that matters for a Yes resolution is that all 3 criteria are met. If it doesn't match the description of a "sprint stage" or "late escapee" exactly, that is irrelevant. Just meet the 3 criteria.

So if the finish of the stage is hard enough that there are big breaks/gaps in timing, it won't count. If the late escapee is only on the front for 400m, it doesn't count. If the late escapee started his breakaway at 12km from the line, it doesn't count.

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