The list of recent winners:
2024: TBD
2023: Jonas Vingegaard
2022: Jonas Vingegaard
2021: Tadej Pogacar
2020: Tadej Pogacar
2019: Egan Bernal
2018: Geraint Thomas
I will add more information to this later when we know more about the race. There is definitely enough known about the potential competitors to start a market now, though.
More important news: the official route is out https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/tour-de-france-route-all-you-need-to-know
Other than an ITT on stage 5, it looks like nothing will be decided until the end of the second week. Then things get crazy, Thursday Hautacam, Friday totally uphill ITT, Saturday almost 5K of climbing ending on Superbagnères (12.4km at 7.5%). I think by then we should almost know who will win.
Updating a little bit down on Jonas, since there are rumors going around (https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/jonas-vingegaard-to-ride-the-2025-giro-ditalia-definitely-maybe/) that he will go to the Giro. I assume that Pogi will like Tour/Vuelta next year, so would be more rested for the Tour.
Also time to start discussion for Giro too: