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MANIFOLD
On which stage will Primoz Roglic first lose the red jersey in the 2024 Vuelta a Espana?
8
Ṁ1kṀ10k
resolved Aug 22
100%99.0%
Stage 6 (Yunquera, uphill finish)
0.1%
Never (holds through the finish)
0.1%
Stage 5 (Sevilla, flat finish)
0.2%
Stage 7 (Cordoba, climb before flat finish)
0.2%
Stage 8 (Cazorla, uphill finish)
0.2%
Stage 9 (Granada, three Cat 1s)
0.2%Other

Resolves to the first stage where the red jersey is awarded to someone OTHER than Roglic on the podium after the stage. If there is no podium, based on the Vuelta website.

If the race is canceled early, resolves to Never. If he holds the jersey every stage, resolves Never.

I will likely add more options if it looks like he will hold it through the entire first week.

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This feels like the first time in a good while where a team deliberately gave someone a legitimate buffer in this way. UAE seemed to be allergic to this strategy lol. Today's result feels very "old school"-compatible.

O'Connor market (sorry @Eliza couldn't wait):

well that was fast...

bought Ṁ750 YES

Stage 5:

Stage 6:

Stage 7:

Stage 8:

Stage 9:

Stage 6 kind of looks like a breakaway-compatible day. The main question is whether the team arrangements allow someone on 1-3 minutes to go up there.

Fortunato? Cristian Rodriguez? Taaramae? Certainly a few potential candidates that exist.