MANIFOLD
Give your personal score of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis from 0 to 10
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Apr 25
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The form of EMH I'm asking about is "Whatever one Fama would defend to the death". So something like "all public information plus some amount of semi-public signals etc."

Give it a score. If you think it's totally solid, pick 10. If you think it's nonsense, pick 0.

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I have to deduct some points because I'm not a fan of fama and french's factor discovery

@Cactus Do we think Manifold in general are big on EMH or nah? I see pockets of enthusiasm but I'm hoping to quantify it.

@Eliza I think medium big on it on average. Some people on here are definitely willing to bet above or below money market odds

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