Doping case guilt tracker - Cycling + Triathlon
Miguel Angel Lopez
Shari Bossuyt
Nairo Quintana
Michel Hessman

If you think they are guilty, buy Yes.

If you think they are innocent, buy No.

I am only going to resolve Yes if they ADMIT to a doping offense. I will only resolve No if they are cleared by the relevant (sporting) anti-doping authorities. A criminal charge going their way does not resolve No -- only the anti-doping/sporting body. If they're given an official ruling of "contamination" and a light penalty, that will also result in a No resolution.

If an answer remains unresolved for over 3 years, it resolves N/A so you can get your mana back, but the answer can be re-added after.

Only add cyclists and triathletes here if they are subject to some kind of investigation or strong rumors. Not just Vayer.... Write comments to track cases.

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Resolving Hessmann NO after it is reported NADA has given him the "lightest possible sentence" and fully accepted that the substance was in his body via an accidental exposure, possibly via a pharmaceutical product being contaminated.

opened a Ṁ1,000 Miguel Angel Lopez NO at 90% order

The Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) advises that the UCI Anti-Doping Tribunal has rendered a decision against Colombian rider Miguel Ángel López.

The Tribunal found Miguel Ángel López guilty of an anti-doping rule violation (ADRV) for use and possession of a prohibited substance (Menotropin)*, concomitantly with the 2022 Giro d’Italia, and has imposed a four-year suspension on the rider.

In accordance with the World Anti-Doping Code and the UCI Anti-Doping Rules, the period of suspension started on 25 July 2023 and will remain in force until 24 July 2027.

Remember, by the rules of this market, we can only resolve answers when the athlete admits to it, or they are cleared by the relevant sporting authorities. (I've adjusted the percentage a bit, though.)

I'm interested in what new evidence they found that let them come to this conclusion now, when they could not earlier. Maybe someone in Operation Ilex has spoken more.

Michel Hessman
bought Ṁ50 Michel Hessman NO

Elizabeth Banks got her test for the same substance ruled No Fault, and got no suspension:

If she can get off with this test, Hessman should also be able to. I actually wonder if her case's turnaround is actually related to a parallel path Hessman may be pursuing. Maybe we will hear more on Hessman soon.

@Eliza I haven't been up to date, but appearently the German prosecutor stopped their investigation in January, because they haven't found any evidence. [Even before I wrote my last comment 🤣 ) It is likely NADA will do it as well. 10% seems to be a good probability for now.

Michel Hessman

tbh, this could take longer than 3 years. As far as I know, this case will be decided by the German justice and not the UCI. (There is some new law against doping as a result of too much doping.)

bought Ṁ5 Nairo Quintana NO

The combination with Triathlon is a little weird, but okay 🤣

@Lion Idk, I didn't want to make an entire extra market just for Triathlon LOL.

BayesianboughtṀ7Shari Bossuyt NO

@Eliza well she's obviously guilty but what's her strategic interest in saying that (jk i don't follow cycling i just saw your link with the title we are not cheaters and inferred she wouldn't admit it from that, idk)

@Bayesian Toon Aerts got popped for the same thing and was unable to win his defense. I doubt she will say she's guilty but I even more doubt she will be cleared since he tried way harder and couldn't shake it.

Nairo Quintana

This would be for a non-Tramadol thing. There have been some rumblings...