The list of recent winners:
2024: Kasia Niewiadoma
2023: Demi Vollering
2022: Annemiek van Vleuten
The 'winner' will be based on the rider awarded the trophy for the general classification at the podium presentation at the conclusion of the final stage. If there is no podium presentation but there is an announcement of the winner, this resolves based on the first person announced by the race organizer to be the winner. Changes after the final winner is announced (e.g. late disqualification) will not change the result of this market.
There is another similar market with more options and less liquidity here:
/RedzoneITG/who-will-win-the-2025-tour-de-franc-OyzONdU5cL
maillot jaune
general classification
tdf gc
tdff
yellow jersey
Due to the considerable amount of liquidity at stake in this market, and the platform not allowing me to withdraw liquidity at a later date, I reserve the right to close trading on the question while the outcome is still in doubt.
1,000People are also trading
@Eliza I don't suppose you'd be willing to leave trading open until Monday, when my mana currently sunk into TDF markets will be freed? :)
@RedzoneITG It seems fairly likely that we can trade after Stage 2 and before Stage 3.....I think my plan is something like:
Close it before the first stage
If nothing weird happens on GC, reopen it (I'm telling you ALL now!)
Close it before the second stage
If nothing weird happens on GC, reopen it
....
Keep going like that, but if I feel as though the odds on anyone would have shifted dramatically, or anyone crashed out, or anything else, I kinda have to leave the market closed because:
If I reopen it and immediately trade to fix the probabilities, people will think I'm intentionally manipulating 'profit' scores. (I have already requested many times that market creators have the option to not be credited with profit on their own market for this reason....)
If I reopen it and don't trade to fix the probabilities, it's basically just me giving away potentially 5000 mana to whatever random person comes along first.
Neither of those are really great!