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MANIFOLD
2023 US Chess Championship - Round 10
12
Ṁ790Ṁ5.3k
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
50%
[Y] Niemann - So [N]
Resolved
YES
[Y] Aronian - Shankland [N]
Resolved
50%
[Y] Xiong - Sevian [N]
Resolved
50%
[Y] Robson - Dominguez Perez [N]
Resolved
YES
[Y] Tang - Swiercz [N]
Resolved
YES
[Y] Caruana - Mishra [N]

The white player is YES

The black player is NO

Resolves to the winner.

If it is a draw, resolves to 50%.

Each answer resolves independently.

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Here is another version of this for tomorrow, in case anyone is interested:

Was this interesting enough that it would be worthwhile to create one for tomorrow, or was it stupid to bet 1-2 mana on small percentages?

@Eliza I think each new trader on an option adds a 20 mana subsidy to the pool, so if you can get a few people to trade, there's still double digit mana to be won

I think the bigger challenge is that the games are pretty slow and there's also computer analysis showing the score, so it's hard to have interesting betting interactions

@georgeyw That's kind of why I'm asking right now -- if people would be willing to make a first guess bet on tomorrow's game, now, then the liquidity is in the market ahead of time and can encourage more pre-game betting.

I think most of the edge you can expect in a chess betting situation is before the game starts anyway?

Just so everyone knows, you probably need to bet in increments of 1 or 2 mana because these questions come with very low liquidity by default.

@Eliza (But 5% profit on 1 mana is still 5% profit, never forget!)