Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get entries from at least 25 unique people/groups?
Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get entries from at least 25 unique people/groups?
6
100Ṁ388resolved Mar 12
Resolved
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See https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated. If the same person/group submits writeups on multiple questions, this still only raises the count for this question by 1.
Mar 2, 3:07pm: There are 2 unique submitters thus far who have submitted 5 total entries. Unsure to what extent people are waiting until the last minute (deadline is March 11), but if you are reading this and are interested the EV of entering seems pretty high!
Close date updated to 2022-03-12 11:59 pm
Mar 4, 11:03am: Now 9 total entries from 5 submitters with a week to go
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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