Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
18
1kṀ4362resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Jeremy Gillen has bet Eli Lifland (myself) that (no-calculator) SOTA on MATH as of Sep 30, 2024 will utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure like MCTS. The bet is at 150:200 odds in Jeremy's favor: Eli will pay Jeremy $200 if this market resolves yes, otherwise Jeremy will pay Eli $150.
For current SOTA, see Minerva.
We've agreed on how a few boundary cases would resolve, and any disagreements about boundary cases will be judged by Thomas Larsen. We're reluctant to share the details of boundary cases publicly due to capability speedup concerns, and generally encourage commenters to be careful about infohazards.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ210 | |
| 2 | Ṁ57 | |
| 3 | Ṁ37 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
People are also trading
Related questions
By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?
28% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
8% chance
By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using a voice chat to control the generation.
49% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026?
86% chance
Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?
65% chance
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027
63
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance