Today I got a positive pregnancy test as a result of a 5-day frozen embryo transfer one week ago (on 2/2/2023). I was born June 3rd, 1988, am 5'7" tall, and weighed 214lbs when I weighed myself yesterday. I have no known health problems that would affect pregnancy. I do have a history of depression and anxiety, for which I take (and plan to continue to take) an antidepressant, and have been subclinical for both for two years. I chose the options based on some cursory research on which pregnancy complications are most common.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 2 | แน62 | |
| 3 | แน24 | |
| 4 | แน14 | |
| 5 | แน9 |
From cursory googling, some results I've found the following: (additional comments in parentheses)
> anemia impacts about 40% of pregnant women [...] (though this might be including poor countries where iron deficiency is much more common? Not sure)
> The prevalence of antenatal depression ranges from 7 to 20% at each trimester of pregnancy (you are more at risk than most because of history of depression/anxiety)
>ย Based on a report of global level meta-analysis the pooled prevalence of antenatal anxiety estimated [...] 19.4% in high-income countries (if you want better estimates, ethnicity and country are strong indicators)
> Every year, 2% to 10% of pregnancies in the United States are affected by gestational diabetes (and BMI and age of 34 make this much more likely)
Some of these results are just the first thing Google gave me, so they're pretty unreliable (sorry for the lack of sources). Still, without wanting to spend too much time on this, the odds of all of these complications are underestimated by this market, IMO.
However, it could be that most of these complications are pretty strongly correlated. If this resolves to multiple choices, it won't pay out as much for each correct prediction, so the "No complications" possibility is strongly favored since it doesn't suffer that problem. I wonder if there's a way to create a market where this isn't a problem. I suggest creating two markets, one about whether there will be any complications and another conditional on there being at least one complication, which will it be.
@BionicD0LPH1N based on the googling i did before creating the market, i agree with you that the market is currently underestimating basically all of the complications. i tried to buy them up to about their prevalence rates, but since buying one affected the odds of the others, this turned out to be more complicated than i had patience for and i ended up giving up. when creating the market i worried how the "No complications" option being the only one mutually exclusive with the rest might affect things, but wasn't sure what to do about it - two markets would have been a good idea, but i'm not sure i want to do that now that i've already created this one?