Conditional on such a study being run, will an independent RCT evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size equal to or greater than 0.3?

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See this ACX post for general context: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety?s=r
"Independent" will be defined as in this related question: https://manifold.markets/AlvarodeMenard/will-an-independent-rct-study-evalu
Essentially, this question is supposed to be exactly like that question, except
- My threshold is 0.3 instead of 0.5, mirroring Scott's prediction in the post.
- This question is *conditional* on a qualifying study being run - if no such study is run by the close date, the question will resolve N/A.
If multiple independent studies are run, I will resolve this question in whatever way Scott resolves his prediction (if he declares himself right, I will resolve YES, otherwise NO).
Close date updated to 2025-05-25 11:59 pm

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