Conditional on such a study being run, will an independent RCT evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size equal to or greater than 0.3?
8
61
Ṁ139Ṁ191
2025
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See this ACX post for general context: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety?s=r
"Independent" will be defined as in this related question: https://manifold.markets/AlvarodeMenard/will-an-independent-rct-study-evalu
Essentially, this question is supposed to be exactly like that question, except
- My threshold is 0.3 instead of 0.5, mirroring Scott's prediction in the post.
- This question is *conditional* on a qualifying study being run - if no such study is run by the close date, the question will resolve N/A.
If multiple independent studies are run, I will resolve this question in whatever way Scott resolves his prediction (if he declares himself right, I will resolve YES, otherwise NO).
Close date updated to 2025-05-25 11:59 pm
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5?
25% chance
By How Much Does Bupropion Improve Happiness in a Self-Blinded RCT?
Would an RCT find that vegetarian is healthier than vegan?
40% chance
By How Much Does Modafinil Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
By How Much Does Vitamin D₃ Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
By How Much Does Caffeine + L-Theanine Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
By How Much Does L-Phenylalanine Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?
26% chance
By How Much Does Micro-Dosed LSD Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?