Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5?
Basic
13
793
2025
28%
chance
For a trial to be classified as "independent", it must not involve Siegfried Kasper and it must not have been funded by Wilmar Schwabe (or any related entities). The relevant endpoint for the effect size must be the Hamilton Anxiety Scale, COVI Anxiety Scale, or another similar measure of anxiety. Close date updated to 2025-05-25 11:59 pm May 20, 1:27pm: Clarification: the market will resolve to NO if no such study exists at the closing date.
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I've created a version of this market which is conditional on a study being run and asks about effect size => 0.3 instead: https://manifold.markets/EigilRischel/conditional-on-such-a-study-being-r
Just to be totally clear, this question is NOT supposed to be conditional on an independent study being run, right? So if no study is run by the close date, this is supposed to resolve NO, not N/A?
@EigilRischel My bad, I should've specified that. It makes more sense to resolve to N/A if no study exists, otherwise we're predicting both the chance that a study exists and that it comes out positive, which seems less useful. OTOH maybe the predictions thus far assume that no study -> NO, and I'd be screwing them over?
@AlvarodeMenard Agreed that conditional makes more sense, not sure whether or not I would guess that bettors so far have assumed this one way or the other. A literal reading of the question as posed does seem to indicate the unconditioned version, so perhaps it's better to stick with that interpretation.
Yeah, I was going to point that out too. Maybe you should set up the 0.3 market yourself @JonathanNankivell! Curious, what's the intution on what 0.1 effect size means?
I was just about to ask this question - well done getting there before me! I think it's worth pointing out a few differences between the prediction Scott makes and this question: 1) He uses an effect size of 0.3. This question uses an effect size of 0.5. 2) He seems to be using the aggregate effect size from the future questions. This question ask if at least one study will find the required effect size 3) He seems to be conditioning on new studies existing. This question doesn't. If the studies aren't ran, this could matter. Still an interesting question though :)