Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 Moscow Time, a ballistic missile launched from Ukraine hits any target within territory currently controlled by Russia, at the distance greater than 500km from territory currently controlled by Ukraine.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key Definitions and Rules:

• Ballistic Missile: The weapon must be classified as a ballistic missile (such as Fire Point's FP-9, or any Sapsan/Hrim-2 variant confirmed to have a range exceeding 500 km). Cruise missiles (e.g., Neptunes, Flamingos), rocket-drones (e.g., Palianytsia), and standard kamikaze drones do not qualify.

• Range: The distance from any potential launch location to target must exceed 500km.

• Potential Launch Location: Area for potential launch locations covers land territory controlled by Ukraine and sea territory within 12 nautical miles from the coast controlled by Ukraine and airspace directly above those territories.

• Target Location: The impact must occur within the territory controlled by Russia.

• Target hit: Missile should detonate at or near target. Missile or its debris falling on target but not detonating does not count. Detonation should meaningfully damage or destroy some real target, missile detonating in the field does not count.

• Verification: Resolution will be based on official statements from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russian Ministry of Defense, or reports from reputable international media and defense analysis organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Institute for the Study of War, Defense Express). If reports are conflicting or unconfirmed by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to NO unless a clear consensus is reached within 7 days of the year's end.

Background

Ukraine has been actively developing and testing its own domestic long-range ballistic missile systems. A primary effort is the Sapsan (Hrim-2) tactical ballistic missile, which has historically been reported as having a range of up to 500 km, though some estimates and developmental variants suggest potential ranges of up to 700 km. Additionally, Ukrainian defense company Fire Point has been developing the FP-9 ballistic missile with a reported range of up to 850 km, which is approaching full-scale flight testing in 2026. This market tracks whether any such system will be successfully deployed to hit a target in Russia during 2026.

Due to some degree of subjectivity in resolution criteria, I will not trade in this market.