Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a large-scale cyberattack targeting either Iran or Israel occurs between June 13, 2025, and August 31, 2025. A "large-scale cyberattack" is defined as an incident that:

• Significantly disrupts critical infrastructure, such as energy, transportation, financial systems, or government operations.

• Receives substantial coverage from reputable news organizations.

Verification will be based on reports from credible sources, including but not limited to:

• Reuters

• Associated Press

• The Times of Israel

• The Hindu

If no such cyberattack is reported by August 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Iran and Israel have a history of cyber engagements. Notably, in October 2021, a cyberattack disrupted all 4,300 fuel stations in Iran, leading to significant operational challenges. Iran attributed this attack to foreign actors, including Israel. (en.wikipedia.org)

In recent years, cyber activities have intensified. Reports indicate that cyberattacks against Israel have tripled since October 2023, with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, being implicated. (timesofisrael.com) Additionally, in April 2025, Iran successfully repelled a major cyberattack targeting its infrastructure, highlighting the ongoing cyber tensions between the two nations. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Escalating Tensions: The period leading up to August 2025 has seen heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially increasing the likelihood of cyber confrontations.

• Cyber Capabilities: Both nations possess advanced cyber capabilities, making the cyber domain a plausible arena for conflict.

• Attribution Challenges: Determining the origin of cyberattacks can be complex, and false flag operations are possible. Therefore, reliance on multiple reputable sources is essential for accurate attribution.