Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2023?

Dynd

164

Ṁ84K

Ṁ2K

Jan 2

chance

ALL

For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.

This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2023, from the creation date of this question.

This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.

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Gregory Gsold Ṁ1,668 of NO

Seems like the UNLV shooting being considered a "mass shooting" will come down to a patient in critical condition: https://twitter.com/LVMPD/status/1732545901737148527

Gregory Gbought Ṁ500 of NO

Patient in critical condition has been upgraded to stable according to press conference (about 2 minutes in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0iuKhLF2yY

Dyndpredicts NO

I guess I did not specify “victims” enough. I want to clarify that the perpetrator shooting himself is not counted towards “victim” fatalities.

ayylmaopredicts YES

@Dynd boo

ayylmaosold Ṁ387 of YES

@zzlk Your statement here contradicts what you wrote in the description.

Gregory G

@ayylmao Where is the contradiction? I think that most people would agree that a perpetrator is not a victim and that a perpetrator being killed by law enforcement has not been murdered.

ayylmaopredicts YES

@GregoryGandy my understanding is that the police shooting the shooter does count as "being murdered with a gun" when it comes to the FBI tracking the stats.

If in this question dynd is not counting that then the quote about the FBI definition of mass shooting is entirely superfluous and confusing.

adkpredicts NO

@zzlk I can’t find a source to corroborate this. Can you provide one?

ayylmaopredicts YES

@adk I will look shortly, I think the way you could show this is by looking at the list of mass shootings and the find one where they was two "victims" and then the shooter is shot by police or they commit suicide, and have the incident still count as a mass shooting by the FBI

Dyndpredicts NO

@zzlk The question is not about how the shooting is counted by the FBI. What is considered “murdered” is also irrelevant. Read the description again. The first paragraph is just an introduction on why the number four was chosen, instead of it being an arbitrary number. The definition that the market will result by is the amount of fatal victims, as clearly stated in the rest of the description.

As @GregoryGandy stated, at the time of writing, it looks like it will come down to whether the victim that is in critical condition will make it or not.

ayylmaobought Ṁ100 of YES

@Dynd are you using the FBI definition "4 or more people murdered with a gun"?

Lester Craftonbought Ṁ50 of YES

There really shouldn't be a market for this question.

Teemu Kovanenpredicts YES

adkpredicts NO

not going to do more updates on this but

adkpredicts NO

@adk well, one more

adkbought Ṁ50 of NO

https://www.broadcastify.com/webPlayer/32008

Baltimore City Police Live Audio Feed

Baltimore City Police Live Audio Feed on Broadcastify.com

Joshua 🦚predicts NO

Oh my god it wants to play me an ad.

adkpredicts NO

@Joshua It's been pretty helpful. Suspect seems to still not be apprehended but has moved away from the university. Mentions of a license plate and "in the woods."