Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2023?
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For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.

This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2023, from the creation date of this question.

This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.

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GregoryG avatar
Gregory Gsold Ṁ1,668 of NO

Seems like the UNLV shooting being considered a "mass shooting" will come down to a patient in critical condition: https://twitter.com/LVMPD/status/1732545901737148527

GregoryG avatar
Gregory Gbought Ṁ500 of NO

Patient in critical condition has been upgraded to stable according to press conference (about 2 minutes in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0iuKhLF2yY

Dynd avatar
Dyndpredicts NO

I guess I did not specify “victims” enough. I want to clarify that the perpetrator shooting himself is not counted towards “victim” fatalities.

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicts YES

@Dynd boo

zzlk avatar
ayylmaosold Ṁ387 of YES

@zzlk Your statement here contradicts what you wrote in the description.

GregoryG avatar
Gregory G

@ayylmao Where is the contradiction? I think that most people would agree that a perpetrator is not a victim and that a perpetrator being killed by law enforcement has not been murdered.

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicts YES

@GregoryGandy my understanding is that the police shooting the shooter does count as "being murdered with a gun" when it comes to the FBI tracking the stats.

If in this question dynd is not counting that then the quote about the FBI definition of mass shooting is entirely superfluous and confusing.

adk avatar
adkpredicts NO

@zzlk I can’t find a source to corroborate this. Can you provide one?

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicts YES

@adk I will look shortly, I think the way you could show this is by looking at the list of mass shootings and the find one where they was two "victims" and then the shooter is shot by police or they commit suicide, and have the incident still count as a mass shooting by the FBI

Dynd avatar
Dyndpredicts NO

@zzlk The question is not about how the shooting is counted by the FBI. What is considered “murdered” is also irrelevant. Read the description again. The first paragraph is just an introduction on why the number four was chosen, instead of it being an arbitrary number. The definition that the market will result by is the amount of fatal victims, as clearly stated in the rest of the description.

As @GregoryGandy stated, at the time of writing, it looks like it will come down to whether the victim that is in critical condition will make it or not.

zzlk avatar
ayylmaobought Ṁ100 of YES

@Dynd are you using the FBI definition "4 or more people murdered with a gun"?

LesterCrafton avatar
Lester Craftonbought Ṁ50 of YES

There really shouldn't be a market for this question.

TeemuKovanen avatar
Teemu Kovanenpredicts YES

.

adk avatar
adkpredicts NO

not going to do more updates on this but

adk avatar
adkpredicts NO

@adk well, one more

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicts NO

Oh my god it wants to play me an ad.

adk avatar
adkpredicts NO

@Joshua It's been pretty helpful. Suspect seems to still not be apprehended but has moved away from the university. Mentions of a license plate and "in the woods."

adk avatar
adkpredicts NO

"injured officer"

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ0 of NO
zzlk avatar
ayylmaosold Ṁ598 of YES

@Joshua are the emojis really necessary

AviS avatar
Avi Schwartzbought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Joshua What’s with your 1M limit orders?

zzlk avatar
ayylmao

@AviS it's for notifications on trading activity

AviS avatar
Avi Schwartzpredicts NO

@zzlk Ah. Are you a @Joshua alt?

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ1 of NO

Just watching 10 minutes of network news coverage of this event make me want to go wash out all my sensory organs. Horrible Sensationalism.

zzlk avatar
ayylmao

@AviS No.

zzlk avatar
ayylmao

@Joshua I got baited by people just completely making stuff up :/