Will the Russian-Ukraine front/border be stable by August 15th, 2023?
22
resolved Jul 27
Resolved
NO

By August 15th, 2023, will the land controlled by Russia and the Ukraine have stabilized (no territory changing hands for >1 month)?

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chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

@Duncn, resolution to NO?

1 reply
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted YES

@chrisjbillington Yep, resolve to NO.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

I think it's very safe to resolve this NO. Plenty of examples of territorial changes since Jul 15 discussed by the ISW, War Mapper, and others - just a matter of what sources you trust.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

Here is an example of a >500m territorial change around Bakhmut, if you trust War Mapper on Twitter:

Compare this map from Jul 18th:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1681325874656706560/photo/1

To this map from Jul 20th:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1682030279953874946/photo/1

The lines have moved by several km.

1 reply
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

@chrisjbillington More on this, from the Institute for the Study of War's map of Bakhmut, July 21st

Caption quoted below:

> Note: Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on July 21 that Ukrainian forces are making measured and stable progress, capturing hundreds of meters daily in the Bakhmut direction. Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Okeksandr Syrsky stated on July 20 that Ukrainian forces advances approximately o.5 kilometers to kilometer daily in the Bakhmut direction. A Russian source claimed on July 20 that Ukrainian forces captured positions on the heights near Klishchiivka, but Russian forces still control the settlement. The Russian source also claimed on July 20 that Ukrainian forces captured positions near the M-o3 highway near Orikhovo- Vasylivka and advanced toward Yahidne. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on July 17 that Ukrainian forces occupied almost all the dominant heights around Bakhmut. Malyar also reported on July 17 that Ukrainian forces have recaptured a total of seven square kilometers within the past week and 31 square kilometers total since the start of the counteroffensive in the Bakhmut direction. ISW is unable to confirm the geometry of the advance at this time

I suppose this kind of info will be enough to resolve this market YES once confirmed.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ200 of NO

There are near daily minor territorial changes at the start of the 30-day period that determines the resolution of this market, very unlikely there are none exceeding the 500m threshold for resolution over the next month. See for example War Mapper on Twitter:

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

no territory? So if one side advances by 100 meters, this resolves NO?

1 reply
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted YES

@AlQuinn Sorry, I missed this question. I will be looking for statements such as 'recaptured X' or 'advanced into y'. If resolutions down to the meter come into play, I think I'll use a resolution of 0.5 km for determining a 'relevant' distance, but will also accept the taking of a strategically or politically meaningful landmark (i.e., a bridge, hospital, village) as resolving 'NO'.