Many people do not currently see gene editing to cure e.g., cancer, sickle-cell, or down syndrom as a clear moral good that humanity should be persuing. Will this change by 2030?
Currently, I count ~40% of the most recent tweets containing the term "gene editing" as clearly negative; "gene therapy" is much, much worse. Twitter may not be the most approprite source by time of resolution, but I will try to find a broadly equivalnt source of popular opinion. When I look at statements of popular opinion, will at least 90% be positive or neutral? By default, I will treat technical statements of valid research as neutral, even if they show negative results or document risks. I will search for whatever term or terms are most commonly used in 2030.
1,000
3.00Twitter sentiment analysis done manually by you seems very unlikely to be an accurate reflection of global sentiment towards gene editing for serious genetic diseases.
Why don't you find a better measure of this and resubmit the question?
Eg you could restrict it to the USA (or anywhere else with regular reasonably reliable population polling on things like this) and use a nationally representative poll by a reputable (subjectively judged by you/the commenters) polling organisation on a roughly equivalent question (adds a lot of noise as small question changes lead to big changes in results).
The above still isn't great but is better than the current one I think.
@WXTJ I think the correct solution would be to post another poll with the resolution criteria you like. Since there aren't any very great measures, having multiple markets looking at various measures is a good thing.
"When I look at statements of popular opinion, will at least 90% be positive or neutral"
90% is REALLY high. As a reference point, only 88% of adults say the benefits of the massively -lifesaving MMR vaccine outweigh the risks. And that was back in 2019, before the covid-induced vaccine panic.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2022/
If we're going by trusted opinion polling, no way is anything like gene therapy going to >90% support.
You could imagine 98% of the population thinks gene editing is good but 2% dislike it, and the 2% are the only people who talk about it on twitter. The first search result for 'vaccine' (by top) on twitter rn is "Over 70% of Americans took an experimental vaccine with no safety or efficacy data simply because the government told them to. We are screwed as a nation." The second result for vaccine (by latest) is 'Can people not see that the vaccine is fucking killing people at a rapid pace? #deepstatecrimes'
Similarly, if you look at discussions of social media, lots of people say they hate social media. Almost exclusively for things that were true of newspapers and pre-iron age tribes or rumor networks, but the sixth post on 'latest' for social media is "Social media already effs with our mental health already like nobody needs that" and the tenth is "but my brain is pressured by social media standards and I can't bring myself to do so". from nbc, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-americans-give-social-media-clear-thumbs-down-n991086 . "Overall, 36 percent of adults view Facebook positively, while 33 percent see it negatively. And Twitter’s rating is 24 percent positive, 27 percent negative.". This doesn't really mean anything, but w/e.