Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022?
19
19
แน€160
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'. #technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun
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bought แน€49 of NO

Since the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1968, only 4 countries have joined the nuclear club, which gives a base rate of 7.4% chance every year. There's only a quarter of the year left so I'd estimate it's about 2% base rate. Could adjust up or down if you feel like Iran is particularly close to a nuclear weapon.

bought แน€1 of NO
I agree that 2021 is unlikely.
bought แน€20 of NO
Really doubt it. Maybe Iran a few years down the line (hopefully not, but an unfortunate possibility), but not 2021.