Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022?
5%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$586 bet
A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'. #technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun
Duncan

Duncan bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I agree that 2021 is unlikely.
alwaysrinse

alwaysrinse bought M$20 of NO3 months ago

Really doubt it. Maybe Iran a few years down the line (hopefully not, but an unfortunate possibility), but not 2021.