OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?
6
100Ṁ114
2030
33%
chance

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that OpenAI has directly issued (or caused a majority‑controlled subsidiary or special‑purpose entity to issue) a blockchain‑based crypto asset and sold it primarily to raise funds for OpenAI on or before 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2030.

What counts (YES):

  • A primary sale by OpenAI (as defined below) of a transferable, on‑chain asset (fungible or non‑fungible), including but not limited to a governance/utility token, security token (STO), tokenized note/debt, or stablecoin where proceeds are raised for OpenAI’s operations, R&D, infrastructure, or corporate purposes.

  • A private placement or public sale (ICO/IEO/STO or equivalent), or an offering under exemptions (e.g., Reg D/Reg S) so long as the asset itself is on‑chain and the offering occurs by the deadline.

  • A token‑warrant/SAFT that results in actual on‑chain token issuance and sale by the deadline (i.e., not just paper rights).

What does not count (NO):

  • Any token issued by non‑controlled affiliates or individuals (e.g., Tools for Humanity/Worldcoin, Microsoft, xAI, or third parties), even if OpenAI employees/advisers are involved.

  • Impersonation/scam tokens, synthetic “OpenAI” trackers, IOUs, points/credits not recorded on a public blockchain, NFTs minted solely for marketing/collectibles with no fundraising component, airdrops/grants with no sale proceeds to OpenAI, or merely accepting crypto as payment.

  • Token‑warrants/SAFTs without on‑chain token issuance by the deadline.

  • Partner‑issued tokens where sale proceeds do not go to OpenAI (e.g., an exchange or platform lists a token referencing OpenAI without OpenAI’s authorization or economic benefit).

Definition of “OpenAI”: OpenAI, Inc. (the non‑profit), OpenAI Global LLC, OpenAI GP LLC, and any entity majority‑owned or controlled by them, including any reorganized successors or SPVs created to run the issuance.

Evidence standard (“strong evidence”): Any one of the following is sufficient:

  • An official OpenAI press release, blog post, or investor communication clearly describing the token sale.

  • A regulatory filing or offering document (e.g., SEC, FCA, MAS, FINMA) that identifies OpenAI as the issuer/seller.

  • Coverage by top‑tier outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, WSJ, FT, Bloomberg) linking to or quoting official materials; or verified on‑chain activity tied to addresses publicly attributed to OpenAI and accompanied by official confirmation.

Timing & resolution mechanics:

  • Uses UTC.

  • May resolve YES early if the criteria are met.

  • Resolves NO on January 2, 2031 (UTC) if criteria are not met or evidence remains insufficient.

  • In edge cases (e.g., compute‑credit tokens), the stated primary purpose in official materials must be capital raising (funding build‑out, operations, R&D, etc.), not merely facilitating payments or loyalty rewards.

Non‑exhaustive examples:

  • YES: OpenAI sells a tokenized note on Ethereum to fund a new data center; OpenAI sells a governance token to finance an open‑source model fund.

  • NO: A third‑party exchange lists “OPENAI” without authorization; OpenAI introduces in‑app credits not on a public chain; Worldcoin activity; an airdrop with no sale proceeds to OpenAI.

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