Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2031 (11:59 PM UTC), the Open Society Foundations (OSF) network—including its primary governing and grant-making entities such as the Open Society Institute and the Foundation to Promote Open Society—officially dissolves, liquidates, or permanently ceases all philanthropic and operational activities globally.

Resolution will be verified via official announcements from OSF leadership (available at opensocietyfoundations.org), official state corporate registry filings (e.g., the New York Department of State Division of Corporations), or IRS tax-exempt status dissolution filings.

This market resolves to NO if OSF continues active grantmaking or organizational operations on January 1, 2031. Regional office closures, program realignments, staff reductions, corporate restructurings, name changes, or changes in board leadership will not trigger a YES resolution so long as the umbrella organization or its direct legal successor remains active.

Background

Founded in 1993 by George Soros, the Open Society Foundations network stewards an endowment of over $20 billion, funding grantmaking initiatives in human rights, democratic governance, education, and climate policy worldwide.

In late 2022, George Soros transferred leadership of the OSF board to his son, Alexander Soros. Under this leadership transition, OSF underwent a multi-year global restructuring that included cutting staff by over 40%, closing several country offices in Africa, Central Asia, and Europe, and shifting toward a centralized "opportunity model" focused on long-term funding commitments. OSF completed its major reorganization phase in mid-2024 and continues to operate globally.