Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Peter Hotez is incarcerated in a federal, state, or county jail or prison facility at any point before January 1, 2031 (12:00 AM UTC).

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key details for resolution:

• Qualifying Incarceration: To trigger a YES resolution, Hotez must be booked and physically held in custody (e.g., for pre-trial detention, serving a criminal sentence, or for civil/criminal contempt of court). House arrest, brief police questioning, traffic stops, or being briefly detained and released on bail without being booked into a correctional facility's general population do not qualify.

• Death: If Peter Hotez passes away before serving any qualifying time in custody and prior to the cutoff date, the market will resolve to NO.

• Sources: The market will resolve based on reliable reports from major news outlets (such as AP, Reuters, or other mainstream press) or official public records from state, federal, or local departments of corrections.

Background

Dr. Peter Hotez is an American pediatrician, vaccine scientist, and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he became a prominent public advocate for vaccination and public health measures. This public role has made him a frequent target of criticism and hostility from anti-vaccine advocates and some political figures. There are currently no active criminal charges, indictments, or government investigations against Dr. Hotez. This market is highly speculative.