Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if William Henry Gates III (born October 28, 1955) is booked and incarcerated in any municipal, state, federal, or international jail or prison facility for at least 24 consecutive hours at any point before January 1, 2050.

The incarceration must be the result of criminal charges, pre-trial detention, or a criminal conviction. House arrest, civil contempt detentions, or brief police questioning that does not involve booking and placement into a jail or prison cell will not qualify.

This market resolves to NO if he is not incarcerated under these conditions before January 1, 2050, or if he passes away prior to any such incarceration occurring.

Credible mainstream media reporting (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, The New York Times) or official court and government records will serve as the source of truth for resolution.

Background

While Bill Gates was arrested for a minor traffic violation in Albuquerque, New Mexico, in 1977 (producing his well-known mugshot), he has never served a prison sentence. In June 2026, Gates testified voluntarily in a closed-door session before the U.S. House Oversight Committee regarding his past association with Jeffrey Epstein. Gates has not been charged with any crime or accused of wrongdoing in connection with Epstein, and he maintained that meeting Epstein was a "grave error in judgment" intended solely to solicit funding for global health initiatives. This market tracks whether Gates will face criminal incarceration before the year 2050.