I have [thing] I need to do by roughly the market close time. Will I complete it in time? I don't really know how long [thing] will take, but my estimated 90% CrI is 2-4 hours. If it's not 100% complete by the market close time, or if it's like a really bad job, I will resolve to NO. If it's both 100% complete and at least a half-decent job, I will resolve to YES.

I will only trade once on this market, which will be trading this up to exactly 97% to make it more costly for me to fail. I don't know what I expect this market to resolve to, but my expected % is definitely substantially lower than 97%.