Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based specifically on the first cloture vote on the motion to proceed, currently scheduled for November 9th 2026. If the cloture motion is withdrawn before the vote, this market will resolve on whether the Senate agrees to the motion to proceed.

Potential future votes, re-introductions, motions to reconsider, and whether the bill gets past the final passage vote will not affect this market. If the cloture vote is delayed, this market will be extended up until the end of the 119th Congress, after which this market will resolve no if no vote has occurred.

Resolution will be based on https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/5653/all-actions, or a consensus of media reporting.

Background Information

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA for short, is a controversial permitting reform and energy infrastructure bill. It has some bipartisan support for its YIMBY/Abundance goals, but has come under attack from tribal leaders and leftists for its weakening of existing regulations. Especially controversial is its environmental impact, with proponents arguing that its facilitation of renewable energy buildout makes BAAJA net-positive environmentally, but many activists criticizing it over its parallel facilitation of increased fossil fuel buildout.

Republicans are expected to vote in favor of BAAJA, but it's unclear whether it has enough support among Senate Democrats to reach 60 votes, with many Democrats outright rejecting the bill or calling for it to be revised and revisited after the newly elected Democrats join Congress.