This market forecasts the number of papal conclaves that will take place from the time this market opens (during the conclave of 2025, inclusive) before a pope of sub-Saharan African origin is elected. Participants can choose from the following options: 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 or more. The market resolves to the correct number once a pope of sub-Saharan African origin is elected. The market will resolve YES to “5 or more” if five conclaves conclude with the election of a non-sub-Saharan-African pope.

In the event that five or more conclaves have not yet occurred by 2050, I’ll reopen the market to 2070. If it looks like it will take longer than that, well, we’re touching the edges of my expected lifespan and I’m open to suggestions on how to manage that. (Life extension and market resolution suggestions are both acceptable.)

• Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the interpretation of 'sub-Saharan African origin':

  • The assessment will not be based on 'deep time' ancestral human migrations (e.g., primordial human origins where all humans trace back to Africa).

  • The term refers to origin in a contemporary or recent historical context relevant to Sub-Saharan Africa.