Isaac started participating in the market a few hours ago, joining the "Yes" team. Being the market creator himself, he might have incentive to incorrently resolve the market if the "No" team ends up winning. Would he incorrectly resolve the market?
Resolution to Yes if the "No" team fulfilled the condition of winning but and Isaac incorrectly resolved the 69 market.
Resolution to N/A if the "Yes" team objectively ends up winning
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If I had infinite mana, I'd bet this down to 0.1%, and I think it would be positive EV.
Isaac is not only a trustable person who has never done this before; if he were to do it, he would only gain a few thousand or tens of thousands of M$ from it and would lose the respect and trust of everyone on this site forever. It would be stupid and make no sense.
@BionicD0LPH1N I appreciate the vote of confidence! 0.1% might be too low when you take into account the chance of Douglas misresolving this market though.
@IsaacKing True, I didn't think of that. Someone who so easily imagines someone else doing so might readily imagine doing it themselves.
@BionicD0LPH1N I wouldn't fault people for having good mental models of other people. And in fact I think doing so would be a little inconsistent, since you apparently trust me despite the fact that I considered that Douglas might do it. :)
@IsaacKing I agree that faulting people for having good models of other people is stupid. But I wouldn't call this having a good mental model of other people, except, of course, if you confess here and now that you're considering mis-resolving your market! 😁 What I'm pointing at here is something like miscalibrated priors or typical mind-ing. And my reasons for trusting you are stronger than those for distrusting you, that's all!
But fine, I take it back. You're a f******* mis-resolver ?$*@&!()$)!* !!
More seriously, those are all extremely valid points, and I agree.
@BionicD0LPH1N I consider a lot of things... I consider driving my car off the road basically every time I drive. I tend to decide against it.
@BionicD0LPH1N Well I haven't done it yet!
(Except for the time I tried to turn around after getting lost, misjudged how wet the dirt was, and got stuck in a ditch for three hours until the tow truck showed up.)