Resolves YES if and only if I participate in the 2024 IMO. Do not trade during TST before problems are public.
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@DottedCalculator Two IMO gold medalists working together failed to sweep day 1. We were able to sweep RMM day 1 in 75 minutes.
@DottedCalculator Do you do contests backwards? This guy did IMO 2015 day 1 backwards. https://www.imo-official.org/participant_r.aspx?id=25121
@DottedCalculator xxooihnks rrbbfwxos
Regardless of the results today, you still have three more oly days to sweep
@DottedCalculator For what it's worth, there are plenty of precedents of IMO gold medalists failing to make the IMO the next year. Ashwin Sah and Yannick Yao are the two examples that came to mind. The latter didn't even make it back after getting a perfect score! So just on base rates 99% or whatever is too high.
Also, are the RMM problems out yet?
Anyway, good luck on APMO and USAMO. Given how you did on the IMO last year I would still go above 60% if, say, you are currently less than 7 points behind 6th place and currently in the top 10, which I would imagine is the case.
@nathanwei 6 points behind 6th, top 15 worst case, although i hope partials are generous
@DottedCalculator I think the market is priced about fairly, maybe I'd go a little higher like 65-70%. But I am not going to bet. If there is such a logjam where 15 people are within a problem of 6th, then APMO+USAMO will decide most things. It's very likely in such a scenario that most people on the IMO team will be USAMO winners, and there's a decent chance that the whole IMO team is USAMO winners.
On a personal note, I did not do well on RMM Day 1 and fell out of the top 6, but made the US team by sweeping USAMO day 2. I remember that I was really worried in a lot of March and April. But I hadn't been to the IMO before, and it was my last chance. So anyway, good luck!
@DottedCalculator Then TSTs will have done a terrible job. I think the TSTs also did a very bad job in 2017, they failed to select Ashwin Sah and Yuan Yao.
@AxelJacobsen He might just decline and do something else for a summer like go to RSI or something I don't know.