Will I make IMO 2024?
resolved Apr 20
RMM Day 1
Feb 28

Resolves YES if and only if I participate in the 2024 IMO. Do not trade during TST before problems are public.

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Why is it that this market resolved over a day ago, and yet other IMO markets are not at all 0 or 100? What's taking so long?




bought Ṁ1,500 YES

Cheap YES, buy!

bought Ṁ50 NO

I did not get the sweep I needed on day 1.

@DottedCalculator Two IMO gold medalists working together failed to sweep day 1. We were able to sweep RMM day 1 in 75 minutes.

bought Ṁ350 YES

literal free mana

@hannah for being no, it’s way too high

@DottedCalculator Can you tell us how you did on the 2 TST days and how you expect to do on RMM?

@nathanwei 777377 070

@DottedCalculator Do you do contests backwards? This guy did IMO 2015 day 1 backwards. https://www.imo-official.org/participant_r.aspx?id=25121

@nathanwei Only TSTST Day 2

bought Ṁ50 NO

yes betters are wasting their mana

bought Ṁ50 YES

@DottedCalculator xxooihnks rrbbfwxos
Regardless of the results today, you still have three more oly days to sweep

@DottedCalculator For what it's worth, there are plenty of precedents of IMO gold medalists failing to make the IMO the next year. Ashwin Sah and Yannick Yao are the two examples that came to mind. The latter didn't even make it back after getting a perfect score! So just on base rates 99% or whatever is too high.

Also, are the RMM problems out yet?

Anyway, good luck on APMO and USAMO. Given how you did on the IMO last year I would still go above 60% if, say, you are currently less than 7 points behind 6th place and currently in the top 10, which I would imagine is the case.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@nathanwei 6 points behind 6th, top 15 worst case, although i hope partials are generous

@DottedCalculator I think the market is priced about fairly, maybe I'd go a little higher like 65-70%. But I am not going to bet. If there is such a logjam where 15 people are within a problem of 6th, then APMO+USAMO will decide most things. It's very likely in such a scenario that most people on the IMO team will be USAMO winners, and there's a decent chance that the whole IMO team is USAMO winners.

On a personal note, I did not do well on RMM Day 1 and fell out of the top 6, but made the US team by sweeping USAMO day 2. I remember that I was really worried in a lot of March and April. But I hadn't been to the IMO before, and it was my last chance. So anyway, good luck!

@nathanwei not if usamo is trivial like last year

@DottedCalculator Then TSTs will have done a terrible job. I think the TSTs also did a very bad job in 2017, they failed to select Ashwin Sah and Yuan Yao.

@nathanwei Ashwin, at least, decided not to compete his senior year I believe.

@dominic No that's not true, he tried to make the IMO team and failed.

bought Ṁ29 YES


predicted YES

don't u need to take usamo and apmo tho 🤔


@AlexanderWang are you hedging? Why the No position?

@AxelJacobsen He might just decline and do something else for a summer like go to RSI or something I don't know.

Oh wait he's a sophomore. Yeah probably he will make it then.

This guy got 41 as a freshman, strong one.