Will there be an electricity shortage in the EU before the end of 2022?
54%
chance
Dec 31
M$321 bet
This market will resolve "YES" if there an electricity shortage in ANY EU country is reported.
DonaldS

DonaldS 13 days ago

It might, in the article it says “Fingrid said it did not expect electricity shortages as a result of the shut off, as only around 10% of Finland's electricity is supplied from Russia.” But if down the road there is a shortage reported it would count.
JohnRoxton

John Roxton 13 days ago

Thanks Donald, that does help. It's still pretty subjective but I'm happy to take a punt on this. One final question - would Russia cutting off power to Finland count as a shortage? This was reported as being 10% of all power in Finland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61442432
DonaldS

DonaldS 13 days ago

I will resolve the market “YES” if it is widely reported on as a shortage. So as long as the shortages are small and non-newsworthy the market will resolve “NO”. Does that help?
JohnRoxton

John Roxton 13 days ago

Can you be more specific about what constitutes a shortage? Most power markets are constantly moving between different levels of shortage and surplus; interventions by TSOs to manage demand are also commonplace for completely benign reasons (it's too sunny on a Sunday etc).