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Will there be an electricity shortage in the EU before the end of 2022?
32
Ṁ344Ṁ1.7k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
This market will resolve "YES" if there an electricity shortage in ANY EU country is reported.
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It might, in the article it says “Fingrid said it did not expect electricity shortages as a result of the shut off, as only around 10% of Finland's electricity is supplied from Russia.” But if down the road there is a shortage reported it would count.
Thanks Donald, that does help. It's still pretty subjective but I'm happy to take a punt on this. One final question - would Russia cutting off power to Finland count as a shortage? This was reported as being 10% of all power in Finland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61442432
I will resolve the market “YES” if it is widely reported on as a shortage. So as long as the shortages are small and non-newsworthy the market will resolve “NO”. Does that help?
Can you be more specific about what constitutes a shortage? Most power markets are constantly moving between different levels of shortage and surplus; interventions by TSOs to manage demand are also commonplace for completely benign reasons (it's too sunny on a Sunday etc).

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